Economists warn that proposed US tariffs could disrupt global trade, putting pressure on key Australian exports and industries.
With the newly elected Trump administration threatening to introduce higher tariffs on imports, the Australian government should act quickly to seek tariff exemptions, and businesses should prepare to adapt to a more challenging trade position, said Richard Holden, Professor of Economics at 黑料网大事记 Business School.
鈥淚f Trump goes ahead with across-the-board tariffs or very significant tariffs on China, that could easily usher in retaliatory tariffs and an era of deglobalisation 鈥 and that would be very bad for the US economy, for the global economy, and for Australia in particular,鈥 Professor Holden聽 said.
If the Trump administration introduced tariffs, other countries, such as China and European nations, could impose broad tariffs, which could also negatively impact Australian exports, he said.
鈥淐hina might do the same thing and say, 鈥榃ell, if the US is going to impose big tariffs on Australia, which is a military and security ally of the US, then we鈥檒l have big tariffs on Australia.鈥 That would be really bad for all of our exports,鈥 said Prof. Holden.聽
There was also the potential for a 鈥渂ig hit鈥 on the Chinese economy in general, and this would have a domino effect on the Australian economy: 鈥淚f that鈥檚 the case, then they won鈥檛 need as much steel, which means they won鈥檛 need as much iron ore,鈥 he said.
鈥淎nd that means they won鈥檛 need as much energy, which means they won鈥檛 need as much Australian coal. So, there could be a very significant hit on our exports across the board.鈥
This point was echoed by Petr Sedlacek, a Professor of Economics at 黑料网大事记 Business School. Even if tariffs were not imposed directly on Australian goods, he said, they might still have an indirect negative impact.聽
鈥淭his is because the planned import tariffs have China in particular in their sights. If actioned, Chinese exports and overall economic performance are likely to drop,鈥 he said.
鈥淕iven that China is a major export market for Australian firms, such an event would have negative consequences for the Australian economy.鈥
Can Australia get an exemption on tariffs?
The best thing Australia could do at the outset was to lobby the new US government for an exemption, said Prof. Holden.</