Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was diplomatic on his return to Australia this week when quizzed about the ongoing negotiations for the COP31 climate summit with rival Turkey.
鈥淲e鈥檙e just engaging through,鈥 Albanese . 鈥淎 clear majority of nations want Australia鈥檚 bid, but it鈥檚 clear also that this is a complex situation and we鈥檝e got to try and resolve it.鈥
Behind the scenes, what geopolitical sweeteners could Australia offer to Turkey to encourage it to retire gracefully from the race to host COP31? This will be the focus of talks between Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Pacific leaders when they meet in Sydney later this week.
Pointy end of negotiations
COP meetings are the world鈥檚 largest annual climate change gathering. There, governments negotiate to cut emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
If Australia鈥檚 bid succeeds, the COP31 summit would be held in Adelaide late next year. It would be the largest diplomatic meeting this country has ever hosted.
COP hosting rights alternate between groups of nations. Australia is in the 鈥淲estern European and Others group鈥, whose turn it is to host the summit. Australia鈥檚 bid has support from 23 of the 28 countries in our group.
But if consensus is not reached with Turkey 鈥 which is also in the group 鈥 the conference will be held in the German city of Bonn. Bonn has the capacity to step in, because it regularly hosts interim climate meetings.
So far, neither nation has backed down. At last month鈥檚 UN General Assembly in New York, Albanese tried but failed to meet Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an. However, Bowen met with Turkey鈥檚 climate minister, Murat Kurum, and Turkey鈥檚 first lady, Emine Erdo臒an, who is a key player in her country鈥檚 bid.
Kurum his country is working on 鈥渋nnovative solutions鈥 to the impasse, arguing both Australia and Turkey can win from negotiations over next year鈥檚 summit. But he鈥檚 offered no detail.
What could Australia offer Turkey?
All this raises the question of how Australia could convince Turkey to drop its bid.
Australia could, for example, offer Turkey hosting rights for a 鈥減re-COP鈥 meeting, usually held ahead of the main event. These meetings are attended by thousands of people. For example, when the UK co-hosted COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 with Italy, Italy hosted the youth and climate summit in the lead-up.
But it鈥檚 likely Turkey wants a political gathering of world leaders 鈥 a meeting Australia would also be loathe to lose.
Australia could also offer diplomatic concessions to Turkey that are completely unrelated to COP, such as backing its bid for other UN roles, or giving funding for aid and development.
This occurred ahead of the COP26 conference bid in 2021, when the UK faced a similar impasse with Turkey. UK officials a package of incentives, such as promising to host a Turkish investment conference in London and backing Turkish candidates for several international and UN posts.
Another option is for Australia to hold the COP presidency and act as official host, but allow Turkey to hold some meetings linked to the summit.
Climate credibility on the line
Australia is bidding to co-host this COP with Pacific nations. So, what Australia offers Turkey will in part be determined by Pacific leaders.
Pacific leaders, for their part, recently asking it to 鈥渃lear the way鈥 for the Australia-Pacific bid.
Pacific governments will want an event in their region to promote Pacific priorities and attract international finance for their clean energy transitions.
There鈥檚 much for Australia to gain by hosting COP31. It positions Australia as a top-tier global citizen and climate leader. It also offers Australia a chance to broker pledges beneficial to its interests 鈥 such as promoting global cooperation around sustainably processed 鈥済reen iron鈥. It could also attract international investment to our clean energy transition.
But Australia鈥檚 reputation will also be on the line. Australia is one of the world鈥檚 largest fossil-fuel exporters and is still approving heavily emitting projects, such as the North West Shelf gas project in Western Australia.
This record will be heavily scrutinised if Australia wins the COP. The meeting should be the moment Australia signals a vital shift: from a fossil fuel heavyweight to a clean energy superpower.
, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response,
This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the .
